Price action on Bitcoin is still firmly within a downtrend and has now formed characteristics of both a symmetrical triangle and a descending triangle. We have now broken and closed below the ascending trend line of the triangle. However the Lower Highs’s are more significant than the Higher Lows’s. Also this is not as significant as the zone of support between $5800 – $6100 which price action keeps testing, rejecting and re-bounding from.
-Will clear regulation on crypto currency’s or an ETF give Btc the price increase it needs to re-test all-time highs? – highly unlikely. Has price discovery now resulted in Btc price to be at a fair value? – potentially. However there could however be a potential for a massive boost in the price on Bitcoin if we see a meltdown in global financial markets which could potentially occur within the next 2 year time and be a lot more severe than the financial crisis in 2008. In terms of market cycles we are currently on the longest bull run and recovery on record. Governments have been printing of their own currency to pay off and service their own debt (which in turn inflates the money supply and decreases the purchasing power of the currency). Global Debt levels are at all-time highs, savings rates are at all-time lows, US stock markets at all-time highs due to US corporations buying back their own stock (which was once illegal), Global interest rates are at all-time lows and we are now seeing the housing markets and auto sector rolling over from their highs which are indicators of market tops. The US economy (the biggest economy in the world) is built on debt and its Debt to GDP ratio continues to grow alongside its budget and trade deficit and a continuation in the rise of interest rates will only lead to one thing which will be a US recession and then a global recession. This should then be the time when capital will flow into Bitcoin as having your capital in Bitcoin creates individual sovereignty.